Housing Shortage. People Moving to LA. Prices Up.

There have been a few articles floating around about people moving out of L.A. due to the expensive housing market. This may be true, but does the city feel any emptier? Certainly not to me.

If anything, it feels way more crowded everywhere in the city than it did 5 years ago. More cars, more people, more crowds everywhere. And lately, half of my clients are from out of town. They are moving from places like NY, SF and the OC. Many are moving for jobs. Many are moving for a different pace of life. In my experience, more people are moving to LA than ever before.

And there is a housing shortage, and when there’s a shortage of anything, what happens to the price? It goes up.

Interest Rates Could Easily Rise to 5% in 2018

We knew the ultra low interest rates wouldn't last forever. But the time is coming for a nearly 5% 30-year fixed.

While still historically low, some surveys by C.A.R. are showing that a small portion of buyers will opt out if rates hit 5%.

Two comments:

1. Buyers who opt out are being very short sighted in my opinion. You're either going to get locked into still historic lows, or you can refinance if the interest rate ever drops again. No brainer.

2. Sellers can anticipate a slight softening of the market due to less buyers. 2019 is expected to have even higher interest rates. Meaning 2018 could be a very good time to sell.

The Art of Trading Up

A successful stock broker friend told me a long time ago that there's only one rule he lives by: "Buy low, sell high." It doesn't matter that you've bought low now and sold high a year from now, or 10 years from now, it only matters that you bought low and sold high.

This is also the key to real estate. If you do this, then you can really start to rake in that passive income.

But you can't just sell high and spend it all--you need to trade up. If you've made a killing on RE in the past 2-3 years like many of my clients did, nearly all of them ended up with either

1. Multiple properties
2. Multi-family properties
3. A wow factor trade up single family home

The ones that traded up to a larger pad in a better neighborhood will still make a killing because their neighborhood keeps getting better.

The ones that doubled their property portfolio or added multi-plexes into the mix, are now happily collecting passive income that increases every year (not to mention their prop values keep going up due to the LA housing market demand) They've basically turned their first profits into cash cows.

Congratulations to all my wonderful clients who are positioning themselves to retire a little earlier!

If Prices Are So High, Why Aren't People Selling?

Sure there's a lot of equity out there. Owners can make a killing. Then why are so few owners not selling?

Prices are too high to rent. If they sell, the rents are way higher than their current fixed mortgage.

Prices are too high to buy. If they sell, it's hard to upgrade these days unless you move to a different location. Most people might make a lateral move or even downsize, but it's hard to upgrade.

At the end of the day, it's better to own.

Condos and Lofts Selling Nicely in DTLA, Rentals Softening a Tad

According to The Real Deal, "As Los Angeles grapples with a severe affordable housing crisis, a new study shows condo and loft sales remain strong...Prices in DTLA continued to increase, rising almost 4.5 percent year-over-year to $697 per square foot. That’s a more modest jump than last year, which saw prices rise up by 11 percent."

Rentals, however, are showing a softening, but still not a dip in prices. Competition is fueling this. 

Bitcoin + Real Estate

No, Bitcoin is not a Federally recognized currency in the U.S. (a fail on their part).

Yes, Bitcoin is accepted to purchase real estate. The reason is because the cryptocurrency is transferred to the Seller from the Buyer, so as long as both parties agree, it's ok. However, there are certain fees in escrow (if using an escrow company) that must be paid by "legitimate" currency.

A Frank Lloyd Wright house in Berkeley is accepting Bitcoin.

Buying a condo in DTLA? A house in the Hollywood Hills? You can swing a Bitcoin deal as long as you have your ducks in a row in cold hard Bitcoin, or even if you're financing a portion of the deal with Bitcoin--you just need the right lender.

Sounds Crazy, But Renting More Affordable Than Buying in LA

The rent increases in LA have been unreal. For $2500/mo, you might find a 650sf studio in Downtown without parking.

If you think Renters have it bad, Buyers actually have it worse. The most recent Home Price Index from CoreLogic showed home prices increased 7% from November 2016 to November 2017.

"Renting is now more affordable than buying a home in the nation’s top 14 most populated counties including Los Angeles County, California; Cook County, Chicago area, Illinois; Harris County, Houston area, Texas; Maricopa County, Phoenix area, Arizona; and San Diego County, California."

Rent prices are also continuing to rise, though, so ultimately, it's still more ideal to own and get into a 30-year fixed mortgage rather than dealing with the 4-6% rent rises LA has been experiencing every year. 

Great Article on the [Second] Arrival of DTLA

From Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-05/where-to-eat-sleep-and-shop-in-downtown-la

"The emergence of Downtown Los Angeles, dubbed DTLA, is no news flash: The area has been on the rise since the late 1990s. But that was the start of a long uphill climb. By 2009, it had already undergone the transition from bleak badlands to vibrant cultural mecca, thanks to early pioneers like the L.A. Live entertainment complex and the Standard Hotel.  Since then, a slew of new hotels, restaurants, and museums have joined, and the neighborhood is showing no sign of slowing down.

'I don’t think it would be inaccurate to say that 15 years ago, it was an urban wasteland,” said real estate developer Tom Gilmore, referring to DTLA. An architect by trade, Gilmore almost single-handedly spearheaded the inner city’s rejuvenation. He first took note of DTLA’s architectural stock in the early ’90s: The inner city was a ghost town with potential, brimming with abandoned beaux arts and art deco buildings.' 

Gilmore’s strategy? To purchase and convert four old buildings into loft apartments, then add bars and restaurants. The timing couldn’t have been better. Simultaneously, Staples swooped in to build its 21,000-seat arena, and Lillian Disney (Walt’s wife) had lined up Frank Gehry to design a metallic curved concert hall—venues that were sure to draw thousands of visitors.

Those three projects and the Broad Museum have been cornerstones to a $20 billion investment in DTLA—with cash coming not just from Gilmore, but from a handful of forward-looking hoteliers, foreign companies, the city of Los Angeles, and several private sources. 

In the past 15 years, more than 3,500 hotel rooms have been added within the DTLA area, with several notable newcomers arriving in 2017, such as the 889-room InterContinental (now the tallest building on the West Coast, at 73 stories) and the offbeat, $30 million Hotel Figueroa, a redo of a 1926 icon.

The neighborhood’s highest-profile opening yet, the NoMad, is coming this month to the historic Giannini Place building. After standing empty for 17 years, it’ll now have 241 Italian-inspired rooms designed by Jacques Garcia, a library, a rooftop pool, and a restaurant by Daniel Humm and Will Guidara (of New York City’s Eleven Madison Park). A Soho House is reportedly on its way, too, this summer. 

To Gilmore, these are the brightest signs yet of the neighborhood’s arrival. “When a tastemaker brand like the NoMad comes in, you realize that whole block is going to change because of them, and you know that the bump from that is going to be significant,” he said.

Balancing out the big names is Row DTLA, a 30-acre complex of historic buildings that has been overhauled into a creative district: It includes a smart collection of independent retailers, businesses, and restaurants, and draws up-and-coming talent by offering short -to medium-term pop-up leases. That’s what allowed French independent menswear label Bonaparte 13 to open its first permanent store in the U.S. here, after testing the waters.

'They’re carefully curating the stores that come in here with a strong bias toward independent retailers,' said Andy Griffith of A+R, a stalwart furniture company in L.A. that recently opened at Row DTLA. Joining him in the neighborhood are other cult brands that have found standalone spaces. Locally born clothing brand 3.1 Phillip Lim recently opened a concept store in the Arts District, and Korean eyewear brand Gentle Monster opened its second U.S. store wedged between the historic Orpheum and Tower theaters. 

For all its progress, DTLA is far from finished. Gilmore, for one, says the area is only halfway there. There are major projects still under way: the renovation of Pershing Square and the addition of the Regional Connector Rail, part of a $1.7 billion high-speed rail project that will link a trio of lines (it’s expected to be completed in 2021). "

Tax Reform & Real Estate - Basic Things You Need to Know

Overall thoughts: Buyers getting a loan of more than $750k will be hit. This will affect the sale of properties with loans above this amount as some buyers may have become reluctant.

1. Effects on the immediate housing situation:

2. Current homeowners are in the clear. But from 2018 on, anyone buying a new home will only be able to deduct the first $750,000 of their mortgage debt. That's down from $1 million. This $750,000 is across multiple homes, not per home. So if you wanted to buy two homes with a 500k mortgage each, you will have 1Mil in mortgage debt, and you can only deduct 750k of that.

3. Homeowners who sell their house for a gain will still be able to exclude up to $500,000 (or $250,000 for single filers) from capital gains, so long as they're selling their primary home and have lived there for two of the past five years.

DTLA To Get a Condo Development That Will Start in the $300s

Not a typo. The newest development to break ground will have units starting in the $300s. Yes, in this market. The condo building is called Perla, and located in the condo-starved Historic Core of DTLA, on the northern end of Broadway. Presales to start at the end of 2018.

There's a catch of course. They will be small by L.A. standards--around the 400-500sf size for the ones priced in the $300s. I think it's one of the smartest moves by a developer to disrupt what's going on in Downtown currently. There is pent up demand for housing that is more affordable, and at these price points, those shut out of the market completely due to prices averaging $700k, will now be able to get something to own instead of blowing money on rent. This is also addressing a growing number of urbanites who just want a home base and require a lot less space.

Neighbors include Grand Central Market, Blue Bottle Cafe, Spring Restaurant, DTLA Vets, Birds & Bees, Klaxons and more.