The Holiday Buy List Should Include Property

The winter is the worst time to sell, but the best time to buy. This is when deals can be made, price drops seen and desperation is running high for sellers. 

Which brings me to talk about buying during the holidays. Two of my investment properties were bought during the holiday months. I lowballed, got the offer accepted with no counters. This is because properties aren't selling as quickly and sellers just want to get out. So, buyers out there, remember that if you're thinking of waiting to buy in May or June of next year, then you will likely pay a bit more, or end up in a bidding war with other buyers. Of course interest rates could fluctuate, and they will, but the forecast is that they will be roughly the same as this year, or a tad higher.

Interest Rates Could Easily Rise to 5% in 2018

We knew the ultra low interest rates wouldn't last forever. But the time is coming for a nearly 5% 30-year fixed.

While still historically low, some surveys by C.A.R. are showing that a small portion of buyers will opt out if rates hit 5%.

Two comments:

1. Buyers who opt out are being very short sighted in my opinion. You're either going to get locked into still historic lows, or you can refinance if the interest rate ever drops again. No brainer.

2. Sellers can anticipate a slight softening of the market due to less buyers. 2019 is expected to have even higher interest rates. Meaning 2018 could be a very good time to sell.

Currently, the Better Bet is on Buying Instead of Renting

If you're in a rent controlled apartment and you're paying about $1/sf, then you should probably stay put. You might still want to buy an investment, but you really should keep your apartment because $1/sf is too good to throw away.

However, if you're renting somewhere around $3/sf, which is about $3000 for a 1000sf pad, then it might be a better bet buy while interest rates are still at historic lows. Reasons why:

1. Interest rates are expected to hike up at least twice in 2017, then again in 2018. I don't think we'll be going into the 5% arena but it could go up to about 4.65% for a SFR.

2. If you're in a rent-controlled building, then the Landlord can hike up rents 2-3% per year. If you're in a non-rent controlled building, then the Landlord can raise the rents to whatever the market rate is after your lease is up.

3. If you get a 30-year fixed mortgage, then your "rent" is fixed for 30 years. Duh.

4. Rents are so high in LA right now, that if you ever decide to keep the home and rent it out, it's likely that someone else's rent money will pay for your mortgage. No brainer.

What to Look Out for in a High Market in DTLA

Gone are the days of just snatching up lofts because they were there for the taking.  The prices are going up and the inventory is still very low, keeping prices even higher. So many downtown homeowners are here to stay--with so much now at their doorstep, it's become one of the most exciting places to visit and live. The dilemma for most buyers is inventory is low, prices are high, and it's a risk to wait in case the market goes up.

In these times, you need to look out for the following if you're in the market to buy. If you can get 2 or more of the following ticked off, then you're doing well;

1. Units that have upside potential. Rather than buy a completely remodeled place, look for one that needs some rehab. New kitchen or new flooring perhaps. Or bathroom remodels. Even something as minor as new lighting. By you adding 10k-20k, you can add 50k in value.

2. Look for buildings with great amenities. There are a lot of new lease-only buildings on the market with top notch amenities. That is your competition. A building with amenities is going always have some value.

3. Buy in a building that offers parking. Enough said.

4. Buy a unit that has something unique and special, like a great city view, or overlooking the park. Or one that has an extra bedroom nook. Or that has a balcony. It's hard to get it all without spending over 1M, but if you can get into a unit that has one or two special features that other units don't have, it's going to add value.

5. Buy in a building that has good development around it. Meaning retail, office space, grocery stores, parks, hospitals, Metro access, etc.

Can You Believe, Prices Haven't Risen in 8 Years?

Here's the reality: prices have risen since 2010. A lot. Then why are so many people clamoring to buy homes, often overbidding?

Because we're barely starting to match 2007 prices. So, look at it this way: prices have not gone up in about 8 years. The price people paid in 2007 is actually more than what people are paying now, which is why some people are still holding on until prices rise even more.

Buying is Cheaper Than Renting in LA & SF

According to a recent study by C.A.R., "San Francisco and Los Angeles are two of the least affordable rental markets." DTLA is a prime example where a studio easily rents for $2000/mo and 1 bedrooms average around $2500/mo. If you're able to save for a $15% downpayment, then you might consider buying instead of renting because of the benefits of the year-over-year equity value increases and mortgage interest write-offs. Ask your accountant what makes sense and maybe 2015 will be the year to buy...

Number of Renters Continue to Rise

According to a new report by New York University’s Furman Center, there has been an increase in renters around the country. "For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reason for renting over buying even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country. 'As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,' Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director."

It’s a renter’s world out there.
Major U.S. cities are seeing an uptick in the amount of renters compared to homeowners, according to a new report by New York University’s Furman Center and Capital One.
Even lower-density cities are seeing an uptick in renters, according to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal.
New York City no longer has the largest share of renters among the country’s other big cities, the report found. Miami — where 65 percent of the population are renters — has surpassed New York. The percentage of renters in New York has been dropping, with 71 percent in 1970 and 64 percent in 2013.
For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reasons for renting over buying, according to the newspaper, even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country.
“As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,” Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director, told the newspaper.
Rents grew faster than inflation in all of the 11 largest metro areas in the country, except for Dallas and Houston where rates remained flat, according to the report. Washington D.C. saw the biggest rent increase, with a 21 percent jump in median rent.
Philadelphia had the lowest percentage of renters in 2013, with 44 percent. Across the country, 36 percent of households are being rented, while 64 percent were owner-occupied. Developers and economists expect that the trend of renting over owning will continue. [WSJ] — Claire Moses 
- See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/02/09/majority-of-population-in-big-u-s-cities-rents-report/#sthash.0DBFKEWC.dpuf

It’s a renter’s world out there.
Major U.S. cities are seeing an uptick in the amount of renters compared to homeowners, according to a new report by New York University’s Furman Center and Capital One.
Even lower-density cities are seeing an uptick in renters, according to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal.
New York City no longer has the largest share of renters among the country’s other big cities, the report found. Miami — where 65 percent of the population are renters — has surpassed New York. The percentage of renters in New York has been dropping, with 71 percent in 1970 and 64 percent in 2013.
For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reasons for renting over buying, according to the newspaper, even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country.
“As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,” Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director, told the newspaper.
Rents grew faster than inflation in all of the 11 largest metro areas in the country, except for Dallas and Houston where rates remained flat, according to the report. Washington D.C. saw the biggest rent increase, with a 21 percent jump in median rent.
Philadelphia had the lowest percentage of renters in 2013, with 44 percent. Across the country, 36 percent of households are being rented, while 64 percent were owner-occupied. Developers and economists expect that the trend of renting over owning will continue. [WSJ] — Claire Moses 
- See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/02/09/majority-of-population-in-big-u-s-cities-rents-report/#sthash.0DBFKEWC.dpuf

It’s a renter’s world out there.
Major U.S. cities are seeing an uptick in the amount of renters compared to homeowners, according to a new report by New York University’s Furman Center and Capital One.
Even lower-density cities are seeing an uptick in renters, according to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal.
New York City no longer has the largest share of renters among the country’s other big cities, the report found. Miami — where 65 percent of the population are renters — has surpassed New York. The percentage of renters in New York has been dropping, with 71 percent in 1970 and 64 percent in 2013.
For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reasons for renting over buying, according to the newspaper, even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country.
“As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,” Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director, told the newspaper.
Rents grew faster than inflation in all of the 11 largest metro areas in the country, except for Dallas and Houston where rates remained flat, according to the report. Washington D.C. saw the biggest rent increase, with a 21 percent jump in median rent.
Philadelphia had the lowest percentage of renters in 2013, with 44 percent. Across the country, 36 percent of households are being rented, while 64 percent were owner-occupied. Developers and economists expect that the trend of renting over owning will continue. [WSJ] — Claire Moses 
- See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/02/09/majority-of-population-in-big-u-s-cities-rents-report/#sthash.0DBFKEWC.dpuf

It’s a renter’s world out there.
Major U.S. cities are seeing an uptick in the amount of renters compared to homeowners, according to a new report by New York University’s Furman Center and Capital One.
Even lower-density cities are seeing an uptick in renters, according to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal.
New York City no longer has the largest share of renters among the country’s other big cities, the report found. Miami — where 65 percent of the population are renters — has surpassed New York. The percentage of renters in New York has been dropping, with 71 percent in 1970 and 64 percent in 2013.
For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reasons for renting over buying, according to the newspaper, even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country.
“As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,” Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director, told the newspaper.
Rents grew faster than inflation in all of the 11 largest metro areas in the country, except for Dallas and Houston where rates remained flat, according to the report. Washington D.C. saw the biggest rent increase, with a 21 percent jump in median rent.
Philadelphia had the lowest percentage of renters in 2013, with 44 percent. Across the country, 36 percent of households are being rented, while 64 percent were owner-occupied. Developers and economists expect that the trend of renting over owning will continue. [WSJ] — Claire Moses 
- See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/02/09/majority-of-population-in-big-u-s-cities-rents-report/#sthash.0DBFKEWC.dpufv

It’s a renter’s world out there.
Major U.S. cities are seeing an uptick in the amount of renters compared to homeowners, according to a new report by New York University’s Furman Center and Capital One.
Even lower-density cities are seeing an uptick in renters, according to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal.
New York City no longer has the largest share of renters among the country’s other big cities, the report found. Miami — where 65 percent of the population are renters — has surpassed New York. The percentage of renters in New York has been dropping, with 71 percent in 1970 and 64 percent in 2013.
For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reasons for renting over buying, according to the newspaper, even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country.
“As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,” Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director, told the newspaper.
Rents grew faster than inflation in all of the 11 largest metro areas in the country, except for Dallas and Houston where rates remained flat, according to the report. Washington D.C. saw the biggest rent increase, with a 21 percent jump in median rent.
Philadelphia had the lowest percentage of renters in 2013, with 44 percent. Across the country, 36 percent of households are being rented, while 64 percent were owner-occupied. Developers and economists expect that the trend of renting over owning will continue. [WSJ] — Claire Moses 
- See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/02/09/majority-of-population-in-big-u-s-cities-rents-report/#sthash.0DBFKEWC.dpuf

Even lower-density cities are seeing an uptick in renters, according to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal.
New York City no longer has the largest share of renters among the country’s other big cities, the report found. Miami — where 65 percent of the population are renters — has surpassed New York. The percentage of renters in New York has been dropping, with 71 percent in 1970 and 64 percent in 2013.
For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reasons for renting over buying, according to the newspaper, even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country.
“As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,” Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director, told the newspaper.
- See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/02/09/majority-of-population-in-big-u-s-cities-rents-report/#sthash.0DBFKEWC.dpuf

Even lower-density cities are seeing an uptick in renters, according to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal.
New York City no longer has the largest share of renters among the country’s other big cities, the report found. Miami — where 65 percent of the population are renters — has surpassed New York. The percentage of renters in New York has been dropping, with 71 percent in 1970 and 64 percent in 2013.
For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reasons for renting over buying, according to the newspaper, even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country.
“As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,” Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director, told the newspaper.
- See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/02/09/majority-of-population-in-big-u-s-cities-rents-report/#sthash.0DBFKEWC.dpuf

Even lower-density cities are seeing an uptick in renters, according to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal.
New York City no longer has the largest share of renters among the country’s other big cities, the report found. Miami — where 65 percent of the population are renters — has surpassed New York. The percentage of renters in New York has been dropping, with 71 percent in 1970 and 64 percent in 2013.
For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reasons for renting over buying, according to the newspaper, even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country.
“As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,” Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director, told the newspaper.
- See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/02/09/majority-of-population-in-big-u-s-cities-rents-report/#sthash.0DBFKEWC.dpuf

Even lower-density cities are seeing an uptick in renters, according to the report cited by the Wall Street Journal.
New York City no longer has the largest share of renters among the country’s other big cities, the report found. Miami — where 65 percent of the population are renters — has surpassed New York. The percentage of renters in New York has been dropping, with 71 percent in 1970 and 64 percent in 2013.
For many, slow income growth and a lack of savings are the reasons for renting over buying, according to the newspaper, even though mortgage rates are still at a historic low. As a result, the demand for rental apartments is up in many cities, which in turn is pushing up housing costs across the country.
“As the number of renters grow, if the supply of rental housing does not keep up, as it has not in most of these cities, then vacancy rates will fall, rents will rise, and more renters will struggle with the costs of housing,” Ingrid Gould Ellen, the Furman Center’s faculty director, told the newspaper.
- See more at: http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/02/09/majority-of-population-in-big-u-s-cities-rents-report/#sthash.0DBFKEWC.dpuf

California Housing Forecast for 2015

Good news for homeowners: according to a study by the California Association of Realtors, the annual median price for 2014 rose 9.8 percent year over year and will further increase by 7.1 percent in 2015.

DTLA props under 300k...

Back in 2012, and even the early part of 2013, you were still able to find several lofts for under $300k. Sure they were small, mostly in buildings without parking or amenities, but they were out there. Present day, there are just 2. One is in a building with lending issues, and the other is TINY and borders skid row. You'll have to venture to the surrounding areas or up your budget. It seems that $400k is the new $300k. Next year, prices are expected to continue to rise.

2015 Housing Forecast

According to Freddie Mac economists, the following projections in housing for 2015

1. Mortgage rates: Interest rates will likely be on the rise next year. By next year, Freddie projects mortgage rates to average 4.6 percent and inch up to 5 percent by the end of the year.
2. Home prices: Continued house-price appreciation and rising mortgage rates will dampen affordability for home buyers. Historically speaking, that's moving from 'very high' levels of affordability to 'high' levels of affordability.
3. Housing starts: Homebuilding is expected to ramp up in the new year, projected to rise by 20 percent from this year. That will likely help total home sales to climb by about 5 percent, reaching the best sales pace in eight years.
4. Single-family originations: Mortgage originations of single-family homes will likely slip by an additional 8 percent, which can be attributed to a steep drop in refinancing volume. Refinancings are expected to make up only 23 percent of originations in 2015; they had been making up more than half in recent years.
5. Multi-family mortgage originations: Mortgage originations for the multi-family sector have surged about 60 percent between 2011 and 2014. Increases are expected to continue in 2015, projected to rise about 14 percent.