Market Has Noticeably Slowed Down. But Who's Selling? Who's Buying?

The headlines change daily, causing chaos, fear and uncertainty. But the effect is clear: Buyers and Sellers are afraid. It's understandable. We know there are going to be effects from tariffs, more inflation, and cost of goods rising. We also know that this affects real estate as the cost of materials and building go up. So while there may not be a flurry of buyers, the prices are not expected to crash. We still have way too many people locked in below 3%, and too many people who bought 10-15 years ago who have too much equity.

So Who's Buying Right Now?

- Pent up buyers who have been waiting over 12-18 months for interest rates to drop, and don't see that happening are just going for it.

- Renters in the $4000-$7000/mo bracket) who have seen their rents rise year over year are also starting to look at smaller homes and a hedge against inflation.

- 1031 Exchange Investors

- People who need to diversify while the stock market remains volatile

Who's Selling Right Now?

Sellers who bought in the past 18-24 months who are locked in at 6-7% and sellers who have a lot of equity--those who bought between 2009-2013, are starting to sell. The psychology is interesting since owners locked into <3% mortgage rates are not selling--it's like they don't want to let go of their unicorn rate. (Note: the average 30yr interest rate since the 1970s is 7.75%. Not vastly different from today's rate of 6.69%, so yes, rates under 3% is unheard of). 

It's Time to Get Real About 2023

Let's face it, selling as-is, 20% over asking and within 7 days, is so 2021. 2022 has been humbling to a lot of sellers, and the ones that were aware of the softening market, and the obvious outcome of doubling interest rates, still won out. These sellers priced accordingly, prettied up their properties, staged them, and still sold at or above list price before the market fell further. 

And there will be more slowdown in 2023. I don't think there will be a massive contraction, but unless there is a big interest rate cut, the housing market will stagnate. Don't get me wrong, there are still a lot of wannabe buyers out there, but the rates are hindering them, and the recent price slowdowns are not enough to get them to make the move just yet. 

So if you're needing to sell, upgrade to a larger house, sell to relocate, etc., it's time to get real. Be prepared to pay for rate buy-downs for buyers, spend a couple thousand on painting or staging, and at the very least, declutter. And be real about what's going on in the market. Just because your neighbor sold for $1M three months ago, doesn't mean that your similar property is going sell for the same or more 3 months from now. 

State of the Market - Crash Looming?

We're half way through the year, pandemic still going, stocks are up, real estate is still buoyant, cost of goods increasing every day. These are chaotic and unstable things going on, but one fact remains, which is that people need places to live. And as the job market continues to pick up, people are moving around, upsizing, downsizing, and changing their surroundings. 

So the big questions:

1. Is there a bubble? - YES. Of course this is a bubble. Multiple offers. Love letters to sellers. As-is. All cash. 

2. Will there be a crash? - PROBABLY. But most likely, it will be a small correction rather than a crash, and it might be a miniscule. WHEN? Likely in 2-3 years. Once all the buyers who accelerated their buying timelines have gone, those who come out to sell will find that there's less demand out there. This will result in some price corrections. But again, I don't see it being big enough to matter in a place like LA. 

3. Hold or sell? - Hold if you've got 5-8 years to hold on. Sell if you're needing to unleash in the next 1-2 years. 

4.  Buy or wait? - If you have a downpayment, buy. Inflation is killing your savings and interest rates are so low, it's practically free money. Only wait if you don't have enough down or you're not prequalified. Otherwise, diversify your investments with stocks, a property, and maybe some crypto if you're risk tolerant.

Life, Interrupted; Real Estate, Still High

Seriously, what is going on? Stock market is up, real estate is up, employment is down, confidence in the economy is down, and the world is a really uncertain place, yet real estate activity continues. Even in a pandemic, people need a place to live. Whether you're employed or not, you need shelter, and you have so many groups of people who are going through different things and are keeping real estate activity going and propping up prices.

What I've been witnessing recently:

1. People downsizing into rentals after selling their homes

2. Couples cohabitating to save money

3. More people converting to roommate situations

4. People panic selling

5. People selling with the equity to buy

6. People buying because of low interest rates

7. People wanting home offices

8. People moving around because they work from home

9. People holding on to wait out the storm before selling

June 2020 Recap + Changing Times

QUICK HOUSING NEWS, OPINIONS, STATS: 

- Things are sitting on the market longer. (Average is about 45+ days). The beginning of June wasn't great with the aftermath of the looting and riots, this hurt momentum, but the end of June saw some mild recovery in prices and activity.

 

- Signs of change. Never has the knock-on effect of events been so apparent until this pandemic. The lockdowns ended up causing a slew of businesses to stop cold turkey. This caused unprecedented unemployment in the US. As lockdowns eased, unemployment claims eased. This points to companies stabilizing (maybe the CARES Act helped?), and some are even rehiring. June 2020 stats showed the 4.8 millions jobs were added, though unemployment still remains high. See NYTimes article here: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/business/stock-market-today-coronavirus.html#link-5f5a419 

and

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-surge-400-points-after-jobs-report-for-june-shows-48-million-jobs-added-unemployment-falls-2020-07-02  

 

- Possible V-shape recovery in housing. Real estate has been "open" for 3 months now. April was the worst month so far, with COVID lockdowns fresh in people's minds. As lockdowns eased in May, real estate started to bounce back and May was great in terms of activity, and most importantly, prices. June was about the same as May, if not slightly better as pent up demand and low interest rates drove some buyers out there. See some optimistic housing news here from Business Insider:

https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-v-shaped-rebound-us-could-start-economic-recovery-2020-6  

- Possible plateau or dip in housing early next year. Three big unknowns that could rock the boat in the coming months. FIRST, if there's no vaccine anytime soon. SECOND, Interest rates rise, shutting out a lot of potential buyers. THIRD, unemployment remains high and stunts consumer activity.

- Less foreign buyers, more domestic buyers. Those who've been priced out are becoming more able to buy due to less competition from foreign money. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/foreign-home-buying-dries-up-easing-the-way-for-domestic-buyers-11593682201  

- Mortgage applications fell since May. In June, super low interest rates helped the housing market, A LOT. This is seriously the single biggest thing helping buying activity right now. However, the number of mortgage applications fell, and this could because taxes are due on July 15, continued uncertainty in the market,  job insecurity. 

- There will likely be an influx of renters in the next 3-12 months. We know that with job instability and unemployment, there is a percentage of the population who will continue to rent, or sell and decide to rent. Rent prices have dropped as well, but minimally. About 1-2% on average.

 

- Inventory is still low. I mentioned this before, and this, along with low interest rates, is what's keeping prices afloat. People aren't selling because many don't have to. The majority of people who own now are special in that many have equity in their homes, unlike back in 2008, when no one had equity and the tiniest shift in the market caused people to be upside down on their mortgages. That was ugly.  

  - Real estate as a good bet against inflation. It's hard to know where to park cash these days, and with inflation and interest rates so low, keeping it in a savings account isn't ideal. But buying a house is looking like a safer bet against the falling dollar. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkudla/2020/06/30/inflation-will-come-here-are-five-ways-to-combat-it/#59cc16dd6deb

 

  - Virtual home shopping on the rise. Lockdowns have forced people to pivot, and now more people are touring homes via virtual tours, videos, and photos. According to Zillow, virtual tours for buyers has increased by 600% in the past couple of months. 

 

- Working and playing from home is the new norm.  It's not just a tech industry thing anymore. Every large company is rethinking their work culture and it's predicted that the majority of white collar jobs will become remote in the near future. Same goes with some of the non-work related stuff. Interesting article about virtual activities partnering with online retail.  And it makes sense. 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lululemon-acquisition-mirror-could-generate-700-million-and-reach-600000-subscribers-by-2023-bank-of-america-2020-07-01?mod=home-page

- Brace yourselves for the long haul.  The days of 15-30% ROI within a year or two of holding real estate are gone for now. You have to think conservatively, like 2-3% gains per year, with micro fluctuations in between.  Too many factors that affect housing are keeping growth at slower pace, but hey, I'm grateful that there is growth at all in these times.

 

- Malls may become the new housing solution. Interesting article on how malls may become housing, since as we know, the shopping mall is definitely going the way of the dinosaur. This could solve the housing shortag,e maybe?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-30/a-case-for-turning-empty-malls-into-housing?srnd=premium

Best Time to List a Home, According to the NYT

Apparently, April is the best time to list a property. General rule of thumb is Spring & Summer.

The factors considered: "the number of days each property spent on the market; the rate at which properties listed at various times of year sold above or below asking price; the number of online views listings received; the total number of listings at any given time; and the average listing price in each area at various times of year."

Market is Shifting, What to Do, What to Do? + Good DTLA Buys

I'm seeing this more and more--price drops. Some were way overpriced to begin with (some Sellers are still stuck in 2018) and some are just delusional thinking that Buyers don't know what's going on.

But does this mean that Sellers should jump ship? Well, that depends. Prices are still pretty high overall. If you wanted to sell in 2018 but didn't, maybe 2019 is the time to sell. After all, inventory is still very low, and you can still fetch prices higher than any year before last.

Should Sellers hold? If the rental market in your neighborhood is still hot (meaning less than 60 days on the market), and you're able to make some cash or at least break even on your costs by renting out, why now? Let someone else pay for your mortgage and expenses while you move on to possibly buying another property.

Which brings me to the fact that we are in an interesting place in the market where prices are shifting and buyers have more leverage than they did even 6 months ago. Look for deals. Look for properties sitting on the market for more than 60-70 days. Look for negotiation opportunities. Interest rates dropped again recently so take advantage. This is what investors do when the market begins to shift. Because who knows how long this shift will last.

Some very good DTLA buys right now:

Mura
629 Traction Ave #224 - Arts District (Red Hot area)

DETAILS: 1240sf, 2 + 2 with rare townhouse style floorplan and bonus 180+sf loft space and 2 parkings spaces! $819k or $660/sf. Building has a pool, gym, 24/7 security, BBQ, outdoor lounge. Super low HOAs of approx $550/mo.

WITHIN 3 BLOCKS OF: Little Tokyo, Hauser Wirth, Grow, Pie Hole, Wurstkuche, Woori Market, Shinola, Salt & Straw, Aliso Village, Inko Nito, Nightshade, Sci Arc, Gold Line, MOCA, Arts District Brewery, Umami, Philip Lim, Woo, Garey Building, Hammer & Spear & so much more.


Library Court
630 W. 6th St - Financial District 

DETAILS: 1180sf, 2 + 2 with open style living/kitchen and 2 parkings spaces! $685k or $580/sf. Building has an outdoor deck, gym, 24/7 security. Super low HOAs of approx $690/mo.

WITHIN 5 BLOCKS OF: Nomad, The Bloc, Pershing Square, Metro Red Line, Fig & 7th, Bottega Louie, Little Sister, Whole Foods, Ralphs, Jewelry District, Wilshire Grand, Target, Nordstrom Rack, Equinox Gym, Philz, Tom George, Fundamental, and more!

Eastern Columbia
849 S. Broadway #M04 - Historic Core

DETAILS: 1500sf, open style bed/living/kitchen flex space, 1 bathroom and 1 parking space. $950k or $633/sf. Building has a rooftop pool, deck, gym, 24/7 security. Mills Act tax savings. HOAs approx $1058/mo.

WITHIN 3 BLOCKS OF: Ace Hotel, Museum Building, Upcoming Apple Store, Mykita, ACNE, Whole Foods, APC, Little Monster, West Elm, Proper Hotel, IL Cafe, Cliftons, Freehand Hotel, Shake Shack, La Tropezienne, Terroni, Wood Spoon, Lala's, Orpheum, United Artists Theater, DTLA Ramen, Shibumi, Soul Cycle & more.

Elleven
1111 S. Grand #404 - South Park

DETAILS: 1030sf, open style bed/living/kitchen flex space, 1 bathroom and 1 parking space. $583k or $566/sf. Building has a pool, deck, BBQ, gym, 24/7 security. HOAs approx $734/mo.

WITHIN 5 BLOCKS OF: Whole Foods, Staples Center, LA Live, Hotel Figueroa, The Bloc, Restaurant Row, Fig & 7th, Fashion District, Broken Spanish, Expo Line, Ralphs, Starbucks, Prank, Barcito, Cow Cafe, CVS, and more.

The Market is Softening, But Inventory is Still Low

Several things have happened in the past few months. It's odd because it's a good time to sell, but it's also weirdly a good time to buy. Some of my thoughts and feedback from clients:

1. Interest rates have gone up. This has affected prices a tad. And yes, I mean only a tad. We're talking 1-3% price shavings from the summer. Meaning, prices are still very good if you're in the market to sell.

2. It's still a Seller's market, mainly because prices are still high and inventory is still low. So is it a good time to sell? Heck yes if you have equity or are needing to unleash.

3. While interest rates are hitting up to 5% depending the lender, I dare say it's still relatively cheap to borrow compared to 20 years ago. Interest rates are slated to go up a bit more in 2019, so that means if you are planning to buy in the next 6-12 months, now is probably a good time.

4. Rents are higher than ever. I can't believe the gorgeous 2+2 unit in a duplex I used to rent in Hancock Park 15 years ago for $1200/mo, is now renting for $4200/mo. That's about a 400% increase. What I mean to say, sadly, is that it's really hard to rent these days with prices so high. If your budget is under 3k, and you don't have a decent downpayment (10-20%) saved up, it's ok to keep renting. If your budget is about 4k, then it's probably better to think of buying something small in an up and coming area and holding on for 3-5 years, and then cashing out on the 100k+ equity you'll gain. Seriously, I believe the market will go up in certain areas while other areas will plateau.

5. Will the market keep going up 5-10% each year like it has since 2010? Likely no for the next 2-3 years. However, 5 years from now, some areas will. These are areas that are in transition, like West Adams, Glassell Park, Montecito Heights, Lincoln Heights, and the Fashion District & Art District in DTLA. There's just room to grow in these areas.

6. At the end of the day, real estate is about security, equity, and leverage, so whether you're selling to make a profit and trade up, or buying to build equity and peace of mind, if it's the right time for you, then that's all that matters.

When Is It A Good Time to Sell, When Is It A Good Time to Buy?

Everyone can look back in hindsight and say "I should have bought in the crash." Then why did so many people jump ship and short sell in the crash? It's because everyone has different motivations, different circumstances in their lives.

There's no really right answer unless you know for sure where the market is heading, and if we could all predict the future, all of us would be in the 1%.

The best answer to the question of when to sell or buy is when you can afford to, and it's the right property.

If you can afford a house at what we're calling the "height of the market," then you should be fine. Even if the market dips, you can afford the payments (Please people, get a 30 year fixed and you're mortgage is like rent control for 30 years). Some people have bought at the height, but got some amazing interest rates, so they ended up just as good as other buyers who got locked into a higher interest rate at a slightly lower price.

If you're selling because you need to, or you want to upgrade, or you want to cash out on equity and get a better investment, go for it. We're at new heights so if you're looking to sell, then duh, this is the best time. If you're not needing to sell, there's no real reason why you should, and it's not like you're needing the cash right now, then hold onto it. You can always rent the place out for killer rents--just as prices are high, rents are even higher than ever before.

Are We In A Bubble?

What a crazy time in real estate--again. Prices are high, inventory is low, people with cash are buying left and right, open houses on good homes are a zoo and bidding wars are still happening.

What's the difference between now and 2007? A lot.

1. Inventory is very, very low. Sellers aren't selling. That's a lot of why good properties in good areas are mobbed by buyers who are ready to go.

2. Rents are super high. Unlike the last time, when rents were very low, right now, rents are super high. LA is having affordability issues. (Well, not compared to NY and SF). More renters are in the buying market because they are sick of paying skyrocketing rents.

3. Interest rates are still low, and while lending is getting more creative again, it's still hella conservative compared to the last time. I remember when I refinanced my place in 2006, and they basically didn't ask for any paperwork except a bank statement and property tax info. The appraiser didn't even come out to the property--they just did it using the MLS and google maps. Things have changed.

That said, it's important to know that the days of buying low and selling high within 1 or 2 years are pretty much gone. If you're buying now, the only way to gain substantial equity is to buy and hold for 5-7 years, or buy a fixer and do some rehabbing to add value. Example: My client just bought a Culver City adjacent dump for about 5k. Recent solds on the same street are $1Mill. With real estate, what you do and when you do it are very key.

Interest Rates Could Easily Rise to 5% in 2018

We knew the ultra low interest rates wouldn't last forever. But the time is coming for a nearly 5% 30-year fixed.

While still historically low, some surveys by C.A.R. are showing that a small portion of buyers will opt out if rates hit 5%.

Two comments:

1. Buyers who opt out are being very short sighted in my opinion. You're either going to get locked into still historic lows, or you can refinance if the interest rate ever drops again. No brainer.

2. Sellers can anticipate a slight softening of the market due to less buyers. 2019 is expected to have even higher interest rates. Meaning 2018 could be a very good time to sell.

The Art of Trading Up

A successful stock broker friend told me a long time ago that there's only one rule he lives by: "Buy low, sell high." It doesn't matter that you've bought low now and sold high a year from now, or 10 years from now, it only matters that you bought low and sold high.

This is also the key to real estate. If you do this, then you can really start to rake in that passive income.

But you can't just sell high and spend it all--you need to trade up. If you've made a killing on RE in the past 2-3 years like many of my clients did, nearly all of them ended up with either

1. Multiple properties
2. Multi-family properties
3. A wow factor trade up single family home

The ones that traded up to a larger pad in a better neighborhood will still make a killing because their neighborhood keeps getting better.

The ones that doubled their property portfolio or added multi-plexes into the mix, are now happily collecting passive income that increases every year (not to mention their prop values keep going up due to the LA housing market demand) They've basically turned their first profits into cash cows.

Congratulations to all my wonderful clients who are positioning themselves to retire a little earlier!

Close to DTLA, Yet Well Under $1Mil

It's still a Seller's market. Prices are high, lots of buyers, nicely maintained properties are still getting multiple bids, and inventory is super low. 

And yes, I'm going to go there. I'm actually using $1Mil as a benchmark for affordability. These are the times we live in, in L.A. (Keep in mind our Norcal neighbors are laughing at these affordable prices.)

Despite the gloom and doom news about home affordability (some of which is true), certain pockets of the city are still in high demand and the buyers can actually afford what they're looking for. Some DTLA owners are opting to rent out their DTLA pad and try out a house with a yard in these pockets or buy an investment to AirBnB.

Some excellent up and coming neighborhoods where values are still rising due to proximity to DTLA and other major hubs, and prices on average are under $1Mil.

Highland Park 

Glassell Park

Montecito Heights

Lincoln Heights

Hermon

Monterey Hills

El Sereno

Garvanza

West Adams/Jefferson Park

View Park/Park Hill Heights

It's Been a Long Real Estate Wave in DTLA, and Still Going

Crazy to think that prices have been increasing in DTLA (and most of LA for that matter) for about 270 weeks straight. Prices went up exponentially between 2012-2014, then less exponentially from 2015-2017. But still, prices kept going up.

In downtown, even with all the construction of condos and the increase of apartments for rent, the fact remains, there's still not enough inventory to buy, causing demand to remain high. True, properties are sitting on the market longer, average about 60 days, mainly due to the higher prices and lending restrictions, but they do sell in the end.

DTLA has reached a critical mass where now I'm getting contacted by DTLA homeowners who want to buy a second property as an investment. People who already own in the area want to own another, and that's hugely telling. It's a desirable place to live, and the rents are even more desirable.

One key change from about 7 years ago: You'd buy an $900k property and expect to rent it out at $2000/mo. Now, you buy a $900k property and expect to rent it out for about $3500/mo.  The math pencils out much better.

Hence the influx of people from NYC, Chicago, SF buying either a second home or investment property because it's still affordable compared to those areas. And yet it's reminding them of Brooklyn, SF's Mission or Wicker Park in Chicago a few years ago. Heck, even Detroit...nuff said.