What to Look Out for in a High Market in DTLA

Gone are the days of just snatching up lofts because they were there for the taking.  The prices are going up and the inventory is still very low, keeping prices even higher. So many downtown homeowners are here to stay--with so much now at their doorstep, it's become one of the most exciting places to visit and live. The dilemma for most buyers is inventory is low, prices are high, and it's a risk to wait in case the market goes up.

In these times, you need to look out for the following if you're in the market to buy. If you can get 2 or more of the following ticked off, then you're doing well;

1. Units that have upside potential. Rather than buy a completely remodeled place, look for one that needs some rehab. New kitchen or new flooring perhaps. Or bathroom remodels. Even something as minor as new lighting. By you adding 10k-20k, you can add 50k in value.

2. Look for buildings with great amenities. There are a lot of new lease-only buildings on the market with top notch amenities. That is your competition. A building with amenities is going always have some value.

3. Buy in a building that offers parking. Enough said.

4. Buy a unit that has something unique and special, like a great city view, or overlooking the park. Or one that has an extra bedroom nook. Or that has a balcony. It's hard to get it all without spending over 1M, but if you can get into a unit that has one or two special features that other units don't have, it's going to add value.

5. Buy in a building that has good development around it. Meaning retail, office space, grocery stores, parks, hospitals, Metro access, etc.

Year End Stats for DTLA

Since the crash in 2008, the market has been steadily increasing in L.A. and downtown in particular. There's a lot of speculation about what's to come in 2017. Interest rates are supposed to be lowered, causing more demand for houses and as a result, prices to continue going up. 

So will it be a good time to sell? 

- Yes. 

Should I rent out my condo?

- If you're planning on renting out your unit, then expect a lot of competition from the many rentals that will be on the market so your place may sit longer than 30 days on the market before getting rented. 

Will it be a good time to buy? 

- If you're planning on holding for 3-5 years then yes. 

- If you're planning on flipping in 1-2 years, then no.

Year        Average Sold Price/SF

2016        $636/SF  

2015        $614/SF

2014        $554/SF

2013        $494/SF

2012        $384/SF

Buy, Sell or Hold?

Downtown (and LA in general) prices are up, per usual, inventory is low, and it's a Seller's market. Prices have well surpassed the 2007 height, and are now beginning to stabilize due to the holidays.

So what to do, BUY, SELL or HOLD?

Assuming you have equity, if you need the cash to upgrade, relocate or just to have liquid for whatever, SELL. It's a good time because prices are higher than ever before and buyers are pent up because inventory has been low for at least 12 months.

If you're buying to invest in the short term, don't. If you're buying to invest in the long term, then BUY. Prices are high, but they are going to be stabilizing into next year, so if you're planning on holding for a while (5-7 years) or you're sick of renting (I predict rental prices will continue to increase again next year in DTLA), then BUY. Why pay a landlord when you can pay yourself while gaining equity?

If you are not planning to do anything with the equity money, then HOLD. DTLA is getting lots of good investment in terms of qualified resident buyers, businesses looking to expand, companies relocating, and developers that are looking to be in one of the most unique parts of LA (e.g. The Row, At Mateo, Oceanwide Plaza). This will only help continued growth and revitalization.

The Upside of "Older" Properties in DTLA

One thing about those 10-year old condos and the 80-year old loft conversions that were done in the mid 2000s is that the square footage of what was selling was a lot larger than the average brand new home today. Nevermind that the price/sf has gone up all over the city. It's that now, 900sf is the size of a 2-bedroom and 1-bedrooms are more like 650sf.

However, back in 2004-2006 when so many lofts and condos were built/converted, the average 1 bedroom was about 800sf. What this means is that if you have a large 1 bedroom, you can think of converting these into 2 bedrooms later on, or marketing them as potential 2-bedrooms. Permits needed, of course.

The moral of the story? Buy a condo or loft that was built 10 years ago if size matters. 

Market Up From Last Year, But Prices Stabilizing

Since the crash, the market has rebounded greatly. Congrats to all my clients who bought in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014! You can rest assured your money was better spent on housing than on stocks. A lot of those who bought in 2015 are also reaping some profits since then though not yet as exponentially. But hold onto the real estate and you can expect more gains in the future. This goes for the Los Angeles market in general.

For those who want to cash out, now is the time. For those who want to enter the market, think long term--like 5-7 years. We're approaching a time where prices are stabilizing as building has started again, and there is a bit more inventory (though still slim pickings in a lot of neighborhoods o LA).

As they say in real estate, sell high and buy two.

Deals in DTLA

With prices averaging about $650/sf in downtown, it's hard to find a "deal" these days. Prices have been increasing since 2009 and are expected to increase a further 3-5% next year. That's unless the interest rates go up then things may finally plateau.

For now, the deals are basically anything under $550/sf. See below:

Flower Street Lofts #115 - 2 bed, 2 bath, 2 parking, 2149sf - $950k (or $442/sf)

Vero Condos #535 - 1 bed, 2 bath, 2 parking, 1120sf- $575k (or $508/sf)

Grand Lofts  #A602 - 2 bed, 2 bath, 2 parking, 1740sf - $920k (or $528/sf)

Elleven  #406 - 1 bed, 2 bath, 2 parking, 1700sf - $910k (or $535/sf)

Eastern Columbia  #M11 - 2 bed, 2 bath, 2 parking, 1830sf - $999k (or $545/sf)

Micro Dip in Downtown + Neighborhood Market Conditions

There's no question it's a seller's market right now in downtown. We're up from 2007 prices, inventory is low, and the area keeps evolving into an exciting destination. We've gone from the low of $300/sf to about $625/sf on average today. And while the prices are pretty stable, there have been some price drops. Bidding wars have slowed down and the units that have been priced in a greedy way have shown price drops. Buyers who've been looking are not having to overbid as much. We don't know how much this micro-dip will last, but in any case, Sellers still hold the power right now because the inventory remains low.

In the near future, South Park will be getting the most condo inventory because of condos like TEN50 and Metropolis coming on the market--and everyone wants the latest and greatest.

Historic Core and Financial Districts remain desirable because of low inventory and lots of business regeneration (The Bloc, Grand Central Market).

Arts District is one of the hottest areas due to low inventory, but there are tons of apartments being developed. Good for condo owners, not as great for investors.

Little Tokyo is still very hot due to the location next to the Arts District and all that River Development.

Fashion District is the next up-and-coming neighborhood. Lots of conversion activity from derelict buildings to live/work lofts, plus the development of THE ROW just a few blocks away is going to be a game changer.

Skid Row adjacent, which is essentially the Little Tokyo Lofts and other artist rental lofts, are benefiting from the Fashion District activity.

The Cost of Buying and Selling a Condo

Price goes up, you sell. Price is right, you buy. Sounds simple, but there's more to it. There are closing costs involved on both sides, and this is something that your realtor should go over with you.

SELLERS:
In a nutshell, the average expense to sell a home is about 2% of the sales price. So on an $800k sales price, you're looking at about $16k in escrow fees. This comes in the form of transfer taxes, escrow company fees, doc fees, etc. Then there's the agency commissions. So while you might think there's $200k in profits to be made, remember that anywhere from 2-8% will be shaved off in fees.

BUYERS:
For buyers who are getting a loan, closing costs are about 3% on an $800k purchase price. You're looking at $24k approximately. Most of these are loan and title insurance fees, and these are IN ADDITION to the purchase price. So if you have barely enough to put down on a place, know that you're going to need at least a 3-4% buffer due to these closing costs. Cash purchases cut out the loan and title insurance fees so suddenly you're only needing about .05-1% in closing costs.

Super Lofts Available - 2000sf and Larger

600sf is the new 800sf. What I mean is that new units are getting smaller in scale, and the small 800-900sf 1-bedrooms we used to snicker at are now considered large 1-bedrooms. 1000sf is pretty much consider HUGE. Size is becoming a huge commodity, as land and building costs are rising. Back in 2003-2007, developers were a lot more generous, which is why you often get more square footage for your money in buildings that were either built or converted in that period.

Here are some interesting "super lofts" available for sale now:

1100 Wilshire #3702 - 3000SF - 2 Parking Spaces

$5,950,000

Molino Lofts #213 - 4260SF - 5 Parking Spaces

$1,985,000

  

Barker Block Lofts #102 - 2660SF - 2 Parking Spaces

$1,675,000

Barker Block Lofts #144 - 2460SF - 2 Parking Spaces

$1,795,000

TEN50 PH5 - 2268SF - 2 Parking Spaces

$2,600,000

Flower Street Lofts - 2149SF - 2 Parking Spaces

$969,000

Barker Block Lofts #121 - 2040SF - 2 Parking Spaces

$1,200,000

Luma PH105 - 2001SF - 2 Parking Spaces

$1,995,000

Downtown Area Highlight: Arts District

Downtown really is its own world. While prices have gone up around the country in most cities (5.1% from 2015!), DTLA is in my opinion one of the most exciting and resilient places. Even after the crash of 2008, prices have been steadily rebounding and are now well past the 2007 height. More residents are living in the area. New businesses have arrived. And each week seems to bring about another exciting development.

One of the most thriving areas is the Arts District. I highlight the area because it has seen some serious value gains because of the exciting development and the lack of inventory. There are only FIVE loft/condo buildings in the Arts District, which is keeping demand high. In addition, some of the most exciting developments and destinations are happening in the area: SOHO House, Hauser Wirth Schimmel, At Mateo, Oficine  Brera, Bestia, The Row DTLA, and The Garey Lofts, Church & State, Shinola, Grow, Everson Royce Bar, La Kretz Innovator.