Sunday, September 20, 2020

Economy and Home Prices Don't Match

The economy is not doing great, yet housing prices and the stock market are high. It doesn't make sense. But if you dig deeper, it does.

The stock market is being propped up by all the stimulus and Fed money printing. Unemployment is still high even as jobs are being created. Are we on the way to recovery? Yes. Will there be another blow? Probably, as many signs are pointing to a potential second COVID wave as well as rounds of layoffs by large companies. This will be the second blow that could lead to the W-shaped recovery everyone is talking about. I still think it might be a square root, depending on how the election goes.

Here's the reality in house in LA. Overall, pretty resilient. People with jobs are still buying because there's now some room to negotiate in certain areas where urban flight is happening. Plus no one wants to miss out on 2% interest rates--it's crazy. And in the inner suburbs like Mid City, Highland Park, Mt. Washington, you're getting multiple offers. Right now, people want outdoor space. They want some distance from neighbors. They want to do DIY on their homes. Average days on the market in inner suburbs? 40. In DTLA? 65. You can't rush things during a pandemic--things are moving slowly, this is just the reality.